Going forward, large LEO concepts could play an important role in meeting this increased demand. Investment in any kind of new connectivity infrastructure will be expensive but will almost certainly be needed. But the crisis has also caused a spike in demand for internet connectivity and underscored its importance. While physical distancing and work-from-home measures remain in place, the development, manufacture, and launch of large LEO satellites will slow.

These challenges will affect the progress of the remaining licensed concepts-Kuiper, Starlink, and Telesat-differently because their ownership and funding approaches vary. In the near term, any company that tries to secure funding will face challenges because of economic uncertainty and immediate public-health concerns. The COVID-19 pandemic will also influence the satellite marketвЂ™s future, but as of the date of this articleвЂ™s publication it is hard to say how great the impact will be. Our information on the number of satellites in orbit is current as of March 2020, but the numbers could soon change. The satellite market is evolving quickly, with companies frequently announcing new or additional launches. If suppliers and constellation providers can achieve these cuts, they could unlock enough demand for large LEO constellations to transform both the B2C and B2B communications markets. Lowering launch costs is one part of the equation, but it will be equally or more critical to reduce the cost of manufacturing spacecraft, ground equipment, and user equipment. Our analysis, however, indicates that companies planning large LEO satellite internet constellations still need to reduce a range of costs significantly to ensure long-term viability. These changes could well make satellite connectivity 2.0 a success. Moreover, both tech companies and investors now have much larger stores of capital to invest, making it possible to fund large constellations-although this capital clearly does not have infinite patience. Satellite technology has advanced demand for bandwidth has soared, with no slowdown in sight and companies have developed creative business models to generate profits from connectivity. The recent failures of LeoSat and OneWeb reinforce that impression.Д«ut much has changed over the past 20 years. After that experience, many industry analysts and investors remain skeptical about the viability of large LEO constellations. In the end, however, all but Iridium scaled back or canceled their intended constellations because of high costs and limited demand. Globalstar, Iridium, Odyssey, and Teledesic had impressive plans. The ambitions for the large LEO concepts may recall the 1990s, when several companies tried to provide global connectivity.

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